This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions.

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Forecasting demography population density human Schools statistics comparative study United States Humans Hispanic Adolescent California Infant, Newborn male preschool child female Infant Child, Preschool newborn school Article adult migration Emigration and Immigration Mexican Americans Child