Archivos de Bronconeumologia
Volume 54, Issue 1, 2018, Pages 18-23

Migration Flow and Its Impact on Tuberculosis Notification in Portugal [El flujo de migratorio y su impacto en la notificación de tuberculosis en Portugal] (Article)

Dias A.* , Gaio R. , Sousa P. , Gomes M. , Oliveira O. , Duarte R.
  • a Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte EPE, Departamento do Tórax, Lisboa, Portugal
  • b Departamento de Matemática, Universidade do Porto and Centro de Matemática da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
  • c Unidade de Saúde Familiar, Saúde em Família, Agrupamento de Centros de Saúde do Grande Porto III, Maia/Valongo, Maia, Portugal
  • d Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova de Gaia/Espinho EPE, Departamento de Saúde Ocupacional, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal, ISPUP-EPIUnit, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
  • e ISPUP-EPIUnit, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
  • f ISPUP-EPIUnit, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal, Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova de Gaia/Espinho EPE, Departamento de Pneumologia, Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal, Departamento de Ciências da Saúde Pública e Forenses e Educação Médica, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal

Abstract

Introduction Tuberculosis notification in Portugal has decreased in the last few years. As a consequence of the economic crisis, emigration has increased and immigration has decreased. Immigrants are a risk group for tuberculosis. Most emigrants are 20–44 years old and belong to the age group most affected by tuberculosis. Objective To describe the decrease in tuberculosis notification in Portugal over the last years from a demographical point of view. Methods Mathematical analysis was performed to quantify the effect of the migration movements (separately and simultaneously) on tuberculosis notification in Portugal from 2008 to 2014. We calculated the estimated tuberculosis notification for each year during the period of study: 1) fixing immigration rate and tuberculosis rate in immigrants at 2008 values; 2) fixing emigration rate and tuberculosis rate in emigrants at 2008 values; 3) fixing both phenomenons at 2008 values. Results The differences between the observed and the estimated numbers were small (≤0.5 cases/100 000 inhabitants). Discussion Impact of the migration movements on tuberculosis notification rate does not seem to be significant when analyzed for each phenomenon individually and simultaneously, by our model. This might mean that we have to concentrate our efforts in other risk factors for tuberculosis. © 2017 SEPAR

Author Keywords

Immigration Emigration tuberculosis

Index Keywords

immigrant emigrant demography Portugal human statistics and numerical data Young Adult Humans migrant lung tuberculosis male Emigrants and Immigrants Tuberculosis, Pulmonary female tuberculosis risk factor Risk Factors mathematical analysis theoretical model population movement pattern Models, Theoretical Article Disease Notification major clinical study adult migration data analysis Emigration and Immigration quantitative analysis retrospective study disease burden population migration
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85029487296&doi=10.1016%2fj.arbres.2017.07.023&partnerID=40&md5=42d554e42327568864839318b2beb44d
DOI: 10.1016/j.arbres.2017.07.023
ISSN: 03002896
Cited by: 2
Original Language: English; Spanish