Global Environmental Change
Volume 54, 2019, Pages 239-249

Climate, conflict and forced migration (Article) (Open Access)

Abel G.J. , Brottrager M. , Crespo Cuaresma J. , Muttarak R.*
  • a Asian Demographic Research Institute (ADRI), Shanghai University, China and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
  • b Johannes Kepler University Linz (JKU) and Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Austria
  • c Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Welthandelsplatz 1, Vienna, 1090, Austria
  • d School of International Development, University of East Anglia (UK) and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

Abstract

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. © 2019 The Authors

Author Keywords

Simultaneous equations Forced migration Asylum seeker Climate change SPEI Endogenous selection Gravity model Conflict Refugee

Index Keywords

gravity survey climate effect numerical model migratory population refugee Climate change Europe Syrian Arab Republic asylum seeker forced migration conflict management
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85060244228&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloenvcha.2018.12.003&partnerID=40&md5=191f7a791bdacfea9976dde6b73b6484
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003
ISSN: 09593780
Cited by: 9
Original Language: English