Turkish Studies
2019

The short and long-term impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy: a simulation approach (Article)

Mahia R.* , de Arce R. , Koç A.A. , Bölük G.
  • a Applied Economy Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
  • b Applied Economy Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
  • c Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
  • d Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey

Abstract

This article presents the results of a simulation on the short-, medium- and long-term aggregated economic contribution of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy. The simulation is focused on two sources of impact: refugees’ access to the Turkish labor market and the investment flow generated by Syrians inside the country. An input–output approach is used to compute economic effects considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, thereby expanding the focus of a classic impact study. Our results show a positive economic impact of Syrian refugees of around 2 percent of GDP in the short term and 4 percent in the long term. Syrian immigration in Turkey is becoming a factor of economic dynamism that not only benefits the Syrian community itself but also the Turkish host communities. The direct and indirect contribution in terms of production and demand is very relevant and, properly channeled and promoted, can become a relative advantage for the country and not a burden of care. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Author Keywords

Turkish economy Migration Syrian refugees economic impact of migration

Index Keywords

[No Keywords available]
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85075234072&doi=10.1080%2f14683849.2019.1691920&partnerID=40&md5=9a65c917b3ba23861c2097dcbeaf0267
DOI: 10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920
ISSN: 14683849
Original Language: English