Background: World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Methods: Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. Findings: The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Conclusions: Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

Tmporary migration Migration South Africa Permanent migration Urbanisation health policy Agincourt Rural-urban links

urban population urban area Human immunodeficiency virus infection health care policy demography poverty Population Dynamics sex ratio Population Surveillance human middle aged rural population priority journal health status policy Aged Urbanization population growth South Africa migrant worker Humans Adolescent male female Socioeconomic Factors geographic origin population distribution socioeconomics population research population movement pattern Article adult migration age distribution Emigration and Immigration Health Policy public policy population migration Child public health health survey