Biomedical and Environmental Sciences
Volume 24, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 343-348

Estimation and projection of the HIV epidemic trend among the migrant population in China (Article)

Meng X. , Wang L.* , Chan S. , Reilly K.H. , Peng Z. , Guo W. , Ding G. , Ding Z. , Qin Q.
  • a National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • b National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • c National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • d National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • e Department of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, Jiangsu, China
  • f National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • g National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • h National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
  • i National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Abstract

The migrant population is a vulnerable group for HIV infection in China. Understanding potential epidemic trends among migrants is critical for developing HIV preventative measures in this population. The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model was used to process prefecture and county-level surveillance data to generate HIV prevalence and epidemic trends for migrant populations in China. The prevalence of HIV among migrants in 2009 was estimated at 0.075 (95 CI: 0.042, 0.108) in China. The HIV epidemic among migrants is likely to increase over the next 5 years, with the prevalence expected to reach 0.110 (95 CI: 0.070, 0.150) by 2015. Although the 2009 estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in China indicate a slower rate of increase compared with the national HIV/AIDS epidemic, it is estimated to persistently increase among migrants over the next 5 years. Migrants will have a strong impact on the overall future of the HIV epidemic trend in China and evidence-based prevention and monitoring efforts should be expanded for this vulnerable population. © 2011 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences.

Author Keywords

HIV/AIDS China Transients and migrants Estimation and projection package

Index Keywords

China HIV Infections sexual behavior Human immunodeficiency virus infection Safe Sex human statistics condom Condoms Epidemics Humans male female risk factor Risk Factors theoretical model prevalence Models, Theoretical Article epidemic migration Transients and Migrants
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-81755168929&doi=10.3967%2f0895-3988.2011.04.004&partnerID=40&md5=3288b17d28b3efdea418106b5d5b2813
DOI: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.004
ISSN: 08953988
Cited by: 15
Original Language: English