PLoS ONE
Volume 6, Issue 6, 2011

The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: A systematic review of the evidence (Article) (Open Access)

Suhrcke M. , Stuckler D. , Suk J.E. , Desai M. , Senek M. , McKee M. , Tsolova S. , Basu S. , Abubakar I. , Hunter P. , Rechel B. , Semenza J.C.
  • a Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  • b Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
  • c Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
  • d London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • e Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  • f London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • g Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
  • h Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
  • i Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  • j Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  • k Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  • l Future Threats and Determinants Section, Scientific Advice Unit, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract

There is concern among public health professionals that the current economic downturn, initiated by the financial crisis that started in 2007, could precipitate the transmission of infectious diseases while also limiting capacity for control. Although studies have reviewed the potential effects of economic downturns on overall health, to our knowledge such an analysis has yet to be done focusing on infectious diseases. We performed a systematic literature review of studies examining changes in infectious disease burden subsequent to periods of crisis. The review identified 230 studies of which 37 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 30 found evidence of worse infectious disease outcomes during recession, often resulting from higher rates of infectious contact under poorer living circumstances, worsened access to therapy, or poorer retention in treatment. The remaining studies found either reductions in infectious disease or no significant effect. Using the paradigm of the "SIR" (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of infectious disease transmission, we examined the implications of these findings for infectious disease transmission and control. Key susceptible groups include infants and the elderly. We identified certain high-risk groups, including migrants, homeless persons, and prison populations, as particularly vulnerable conduits of epidemics during situations of economic duress. We also observed that the long-term impacts of crises on infectious disease are not inevitable: considerable evidence suggests that the magnitude of effect depends critically on budgetary responses by governments. Like other emergencies and natural disasters, preparedness for financial crises should include consideration of consequences for communicable disease control. © 2011 Suhrcke et al.

Author Keywords

[No Keywords available]

Index Keywords

Models, Biological biological model economics Economic Recession human infection rate Communicable Diseases environmental change meta analysis health care cost Humans host susceptibility Review communicable disease control high risk population Article disease transmission disease control infection control communicable disease infection risk health care access politics convalescence systematic review health care availability evidence based medicine behavior change
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-79958740347&doi=10.1371%2fjournal.pone.0020724&partnerID=40&md5=805750569c331df4596a372ff09c1cb8
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0020724
ISSN: 19326203
Cited by: 108
Original Language: English