Journal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies
Volume 8, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 135-157

Red flags: A model for the early warning of refugee outflows (Article)

Martineau J.S.
  • a Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Delaware, 347 Smith Hall, Newark, DE 19716, United States

Abstract

The best time to stop a refugee crisis is before it starts. In order for this to be possible, an effective early warning system (EWS) is necessary. However, for an EWS to be practical it must not only be accurate and timely but also user-friendly. What follows is an attempt to provide such an EWS. Using a dataset containing information on 170 countries, a simple binary logistic model was created using only 6 independent variables in its final version. The model accurately predicted whether or not a country produced refugees 90% of the time. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Author Keywords

Policymakers Refugee outflows Early warning

Index Keywords

modeling refugee early warning system data set policy making
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-77953433853&doi=10.1080%2f15562941003792093&partnerID=40&md5=5341272193726ea962a638c5f5c6f303
DOI: 10.1080/15562941003792093
ISSN: 15562948
Cited by: 1
Original Language: English