Demography
Volume 52, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 1627-1650
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration (Article) (Open Access)
Azose J.J.* ,
Raftery A.E.
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a
Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, United States
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b
Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, United States
Abstract
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. © 2015, The Author(s).
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Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84944515910&doi=10.1007%2fs13524-015-0415-0&partnerID=40&md5=7ae6486f1d512e8dbc2c292595d44fb1
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0
ISSN: 00703370
Cited by: 13
Original Language: English