Demography
Volume 52, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 1627-1650

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration (Article) (Open Access)

Azose J.J.* , Raftery A.E.
  • a Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, United States
  • b Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, United States

Abstract

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. © 2015, The Author(s).

Author Keywords

Autoregressive model Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian hierarchical model World population prospects

Index Keywords

Sex Distribution time factor Markov Chains age distribution United Nations Emigration and Immigration Bayes theorem Time Factors Monte Carlo Method Markov chain Population Dynamics sex ratio human Humans trends migration

Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84944515910&doi=10.1007%2fs13524-015-0415-0&partnerID=40&md5=7ae6486f1d512e8dbc2c292595d44fb1

DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0
ISSN: 00703370
Cited by: 13
Original Language: English