The study was designed to model the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of oral Vitamin D supplementation as a primary prevention strategy for cardiovascular disease among a migrant population in Australia. It was carried out in the Community Health Service, Kensington, Melbourne. Best-case scenario analysis using a Markov model was employed to look at the health care providers' perspective. Adult migrants who were vitamin D deficient and free from cardiovascular disease visiting the medical centre at least once during the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2012 were included in the study. The blood pressure-lowering effect of vitamin D was taken from a published meta-analysis and applied in the Framingham 10 year cardiovascular risk algorithm (with and without oral vitamin D supplements) to generate the probabilities of cardiovascular events. A Markov decision model was used to estimate the provider costs associated with the events and treatments. Uncertainties were derived by Monte Carlo simulation. Vitamin D oral supplementation (1000 IU/day) for 10 years could potentially prevent 31 (interquartile range (IQR) 26 to 37) non-fatal and 11 (IQR 10 to 15) fatal cardiovascular events in a migrant population of 10 000 assuming 100% compliance. The provider perspective incremental cost effectiveness per year of life saved was AU$3,992 (IQR 583 to 8558). This study suggests subsidised supplementation of oral vitamin D may be a cost effective intervention to reduce non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk migrant populations. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

cardiovascular disease Markov models Vitamin D deficiency Framingham risk score

Markov Chains Australia heart infarction cerebrovascular accident cholesterol blood level Community Health Services community care Cardiovascular Diseases human middle aged Vitamin D Dietary Supplements dietary supplement Aged oral drug administration Administration, Oral ethnology procedures hemoglobin A1c cost effectiveness analysis Humans migrant cardiovascular disease male female risk factor primary prevention Risk Factors hidden Markov model Monte Carlo Method vitamin D deficiency Article blood patient compliance major clinical study adult meta analysis (topic) migration vitamin supplementation high density lipoprotein cholesterol outcome assessment Transients and Migrants systolic blood pressure diastolic blood pressure Markov chain clinical effectiveness Framingham risk score