Method, assumptions, and results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background [Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022]

AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv
Volume 8, Issue 1-2, 2014, Pages 49-79

Method, assumptions, and results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background [Modell, Annahmen und Ergebnisse einer nach Migrationshintergrund differenzierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung für Bayern bis 2022] (Article)

Woltering K.*

^a Dienststelle Fürth, Bayerisches Landesamt für Statistik und Datenverarbeitung, Finkenstr. 3, 90762 Fürth, Germany

Abstract

Population projections quantify the changes in size and composition of a population that would occur if recent demographic trends were to continue into the future. This essay presents the model, the underlying assumptions, and the results of a projection of the Bavarian population differentiated by its immigrant background. The population with immigrant background does not only comprise residing aliens but also ethnic German immigrants and naturalised Germans plus their respective German children. The adopted model is based on the cohort component method. The considered demographic components are fertility, mortality, migration and the change between sub-populations, either by birth or by naturalisation. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Author Keywords

Projection Population Immigrant background

Index Keywords

[No Keywords available]

Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901910594&doi=10.1007%2fs11943-014-0139-4&partnerID=40&md5=b74523b42c9e0c01d5a20524cf39cb03

DOI: 10.1007/s11943-014-0139-4

ISSN: 18638155

Cited by: 1

Original Language: English; German