Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the US, as the US and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege? This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico. NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the US labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico. -from Authors

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Population Forecast Migrant Workers Research Methodology Forecasting South and Central America Mexican migration Americas Latin America economics population demography developing country labour migration Population Dynamics Developing Countries statistics Developed Countries international cooperation Central America USA Mexico population growth Commerce United States North America economic development health care manpower labor migration Health Manpower Western Hemisphere commercial phenomena Article migration international migration developed country Demographic Factors migration flow research Estimation Technics Emigration and Immigration Economic Factors Transients and Migrants Northern America Human Resources Macroeconomic Factors employment Labor Force rural migrants North American Free Trade Agreement economic restructuring trade agreement Population Growth Estimation