Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology
Volume 17, Issue 5, 1998, Pages 465-469

HIV incidence in Ethiopian immigrants to Israel (Article)

Kaplan E.H.* , Kedem E. , Pollack S.
  • a Yale School of Management, New Haven, CT, United States, Yale School of Management, Box 208200, New Haven, CT 05620-8200, United States
  • b Immunology, Allergy and AIDS Institute, Rambam Medical Center, Haifa, Israel
  • c Immunology, Allergy and AIDS Institute, Rambam Medical Center, Haifa, Israel

Abstract

The HIV incidence in recent adult Ethiopian immigrants to Israel is estimated through the use of snapshot estimators based on percentage of CD4 progression with time since infection, whereas the preimmigration incidence experienced by this population is estimated using an epidemic model applied to HIV prevalence data obtained from immigrants on arrival in Israel. The snapshot estimators place incidence in adult Ethiopian immigrants in Israel between 3 and 11 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year around May 1995. In contrast, the epidemic model suggests that the incidence experienced by this population before immigration was between 12 and 22 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year. Although the drop in incidence postimmigration is good news, in the aggregate, we estimate that between 50 and 190 new infections have occurred annually in adult Ethiopians who have immigrated to Israel.

Author Keywords

HIV incidence Ethiopian immigrants Statistical models

Index Keywords

statistical analysis priority journal major clinical study immigrant Israel Human immunodeficiency virus infection Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence Article Ethiopia human
Link
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-0032522086&doi=10.1097%2f00042560-199804150-00012&partnerID=40&md5=10e5216aee130876af48513ff919335f
DOI: 10.1097/00042560-199804150-00012
ISSN: 10779450
Cited by: 14
Original Language: English