This article demonstrates the pattern of change in human rights violations which ultimately leads to refugee flight. The identification of a change in human rights abuses prior to the onset of refugee flight may aid in developing an early warning system. The dominant pattern is an incremental increase in human rights abuses in the years prior to refugee flight. This increase is dramatic; the Political Terror Scale (PTS) score increases by over 1.5 points in the vast majority of cases. When the PTS score reaches the range of 3.5-4.5, refugees leave.

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migration determinants refugee flight human rights violation